vdlrao
09-15 03:19 PM
Vdlrao,
You are admired a lot for bringing in hope for lot of people with your EB2 prediction thread, can you jump in and throw some numbers here please if you think the numbers quoted are out of way, i understand this is time consuming but since you already did your homework last time around it should take you few minutes to come up with some realistic numbers.
Hi ocpmachine,
I dont know the exact Eb2 India labors certified for the given years. But initially I assumed that Eb2 India would be almost current or in the worst case it would cross 2006 because of the spill over. Because I assumed and hoped very high on the spill over numbers. But in reality the spill overs also didnt make a big impact in the EB2 India movement. See the previous visa bulletins you could find that Eb2 is is in the middle of 2004 in the year of 2005 itself. Since 2005 to 2007 its there in 2004 many times.
But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.
So I am expecting a steady and consistent forward movement of EB2 India but not a quick jumps of couple of years in single bulletin.
I hope it makes clear to everybody. And all we need is an EB immigration reform.
You are admired a lot for bringing in hope for lot of people with your EB2 prediction thread, can you jump in and throw some numbers here please if you think the numbers quoted are out of way, i understand this is time consuming but since you already did your homework last time around it should take you few minutes to come up with some realistic numbers.
Hi ocpmachine,
I dont know the exact Eb2 India labors certified for the given years. But initially I assumed that Eb2 India would be almost current or in the worst case it would cross 2006 because of the spill over. Because I assumed and hoped very high on the spill over numbers. But in reality the spill overs also didnt make a big impact in the EB2 India movement. See the previous visa bulletins you could find that Eb2 is is in the middle of 2004 in the year of 2005 itself. Since 2005 to 2007 its there in 2004 many times.
But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.
So I am expecting a steady and consistent forward movement of EB2 India but not a quick jumps of couple of years in single bulletin.
I hope it makes clear to everybody. And all we need is an EB immigration reform.
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deba
07-10 11:29 AM
congrats byeusa. wish you the best. I just sent you a personal message here. If you get a chance please reply. Again, congrats.
chanduv23
06-28 01:29 PM
I heard that Fedex is going on strike in Nebraska in the month of July and will end their strike when retro kicks in?
Did anyone else hear this?? Can anyone post a valid link to this other than
OH OH OH OH Mathew site link????
:D :D :D :D :D
Did anyone else hear this?? Can anyone post a valid link to this other than
OH OH OH OH Mathew site link????
:D :D :D :D :D
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H1BinNY
07-03 07:00 PM
I digged all the comments but looks like someone is trying to bury them again and again...
Probably someone from USCIS
Probably someone from USCIS
more...
arunmohan
06-03 07:34 PM
Laws you quoted are for US residents, not for those wanting to be US residents. Country quota, I believe, is more sensitive and difficult to change. Of course, it is not working for the original intent to not have people from a few countries making US as their home.
Work-arounds, we are so familiar with such as AOS, EAD, H1B beyond 6 yrs, etc., are easier to get in. For the current situation, simple work-around could be to adjudicate a case when all is good except the visa number, and send an interim GC card until visa number is available. When visa number is available, interim card could be replaced with a permanent card. In a nutshell, replace EAD/AP with an interim permanent resident card, and replace it with a permanent card when visa number is available.
I agree with JSB. As per my understanding this would be a best option for us right now. We can fight for this from USCIS, there is no need for legislation.
IV and Donor members please proceed for this. I am willing to donate money for this.
We can ask from Ron Gotcher if this is possible or not.
Work-arounds, we are so familiar with such as AOS, EAD, H1B beyond 6 yrs, etc., are easier to get in. For the current situation, simple work-around could be to adjudicate a case when all is good except the visa number, and send an interim GC card until visa number is available. When visa number is available, interim card could be replaced with a permanent card. In a nutshell, replace EAD/AP with an interim permanent resident card, and replace it with a permanent card when visa number is available.
I agree with JSB. As per my understanding this would be a best option for us right now. We can fight for this from USCIS, there is no need for legislation.
IV and Donor members please proceed for this. I am willing to donate money for this.
We can ask from Ron Gotcher if this is possible or not.
jayleno
07-21 02:18 PM
Chill my friend. See where it is posted.
Immigration Voice > General Information > Interesting Topics
This is a very informative topic....well unless you are a quickstar member who is proud of it.
Please for GOD SAKE understand that this is an immigration Portal.
Not a fish market where we can discuss the prices of item at different stores.
Please stop this Admin
Immigration Voice > General Information > Interesting Topics
This is a very informative topic....well unless you are a quickstar member who is proud of it.
Please for GOD SAKE understand that this is an immigration Portal.
Not a fish market where we can discuss the prices of item at different stores.
Please stop this Admin
more...
PlainSpeak
01-14 12:42 PM
Good catch !!!!!!!!!!! HA....HA.......H.....AAAAAAAA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My friend it took it time to get the joke but you got it. I am happy for you
My friend it took it time to get the joke but you got it. I am happy for you
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radhay
05-29 11:25 AM
60K EB2-I and 60K EB3-I pending so far. Does this mean Eb2 and EB3 dates will move together from now on for India?
more...
Macaca
07-04 10:14 AM
IV release has the following line in 1st para. What is one minor category?
The Department of State, in a sweeping move, announced that they would accept applications from all highly-skilled workers (sans one minor category) to a) adjust status to a permanent resident (ie apply for a Green Card, which is the final stage),
The Department of State, in a sweeping move, announced that they would accept applications from all highly-skilled workers (sans one minor category) to a) adjust status to a permanent resident (ie apply for a Green Card, which is the final stage),
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nojoke
10-10 04:14 AM
earlier I was bit skeptical about this idea but now as days it seems to be the only solution ..I knew markets would fall but this is beyond anything :D ...where will dow industrial stop ..I have been trying to buy some stocks but it keeps falling :D ...really worrisome ..but clearing house inventory is definitely the first step ..I don't think world can wait till next year june for home prices to rebound :D
...US has to do everything ..and this includes faster GC ..I wonder where core IV is ??
the magnitude of the problem is too big that they won't even bother to open your letters. your solution is a drop in a bucket. You think they will consider your proposals after no effect from 700 billion bailout and more injection of liquidity around the world and with england, dutch, iceland and most of Europe in even more bigger trouble. Plus 10% market crash in Asia just today. At least let the system settle down a bit before proposing these ideas to the lawmakers.
...US has to do everything ..and this includes faster GC ..I wonder where core IV is ??
the magnitude of the problem is too big that they won't even bother to open your letters. your solution is a drop in a bucket. You think they will consider your proposals after no effect from 700 billion bailout and more injection of liquidity around the world and with england, dutch, iceland and most of Europe in even more bigger trouble. Plus 10% market crash in Asia just today. At least let the system settle down a bit before proposing these ideas to the lawmakers.
more...
Edison99
09-24 11:54 AM
when there were no dates in VISA BULLETIN for EB2 and EB3, how the people filed 485 in the year 2008 and 2009 under EB3 and EB2 as well?
Good Question though!
Good Question though!
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chintu25
02-13 11:00 AM
The issue is that people speak big here - but run away when asked to come forward. How do we trust 35K members who have tons of excuses for not doing anything for themsleves and blaming IV and questioning IVs credibility?
Also another point in your response that said ...how do we trust .....
I ask do we have a choice ... to not trust.
Trust is a strong word.
IV is based on trust and common goals I think
All the members on this forum have atleast some TRUST and Faith in IV otherwise they wouldnt be here .....Maybe they are fearful of coming out in the open but like I said I am sure they will unite to take action under the IV umbrella
Also another point in your response that said ...how do we trust .....
I ask do we have a choice ... to not trust.
Trust is a strong word.
IV is based on trust and common goals I think
All the members on this forum have atleast some TRUST and Faith in IV otherwise they wouldnt be here .....Maybe they are fearful of coming out in the open but like I said I am sure they will unite to take action under the IV umbrella
more...
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nixstor
07-03 09:22 PM
Will it be possible to get emergency legislation to capture unused EB numbers for the past several years????
Is it possible to escape the radars of the likes of Durbin & Sanders?
No, it will not be possible to escape the radars of Durbin, Grassley or Sanders. The key is to get support from people like Kennedy. I know it is very difficult because kennedy is very pissed off with the failure of CIR. Kennedy will only consider this, if this really becomes a full blown issue beyond a certain magnitude. Then we have people like Hagel, Lieberman, Cornyn, cantwell who supported bigger amendments than this. It is a matter of making this a bigger/biggest issue related with USCIS and immigration.
Is it possible to escape the radars of the likes of Durbin & Sanders?
No, it will not be possible to escape the radars of Durbin, Grassley or Sanders. The key is to get support from people like Kennedy. I know it is very difficult because kennedy is very pissed off with the failure of CIR. Kennedy will only consider this, if this really becomes a full blown issue beyond a certain magnitude. Then we have people like Hagel, Lieberman, Cornyn, cantwell who supported bigger amendments than this. It is a matter of making this a bigger/biggest issue related with USCIS and immigration.
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msp1976
02-18 11:28 AM
This is an excellent analysis of why do you see so many EB based immigrants from India and not from other places...The same arguments can apply almost identically to the Chinese immigrants...
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/sep2006/sb20060913_157784.htm?chan=search
I have been following your arguments and I get a sense that though not explicitly anti immigrants, you are opposed to any concentration of EB immigrants from any particular place..It just happens so that at this time it happens to be the Indians....
But a large concentration of Indians in this immigrant category is not an accident....nor is it just because of people preferring their kins for sponsoring....But because of the numerous facts enumerated in this article.....
Of course you can dismiss this argument as Indians promoting themselves...but what the heck... I have to at least try...
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/sep2006/sb20060913_157784.htm?chan=search
I have been following your arguments and I get a sense that though not explicitly anti immigrants, you are opposed to any concentration of EB immigrants from any particular place..It just happens so that at this time it happens to be the Indians....
But a large concentration of Indians in this immigrant category is not an accident....nor is it just because of people preferring their kins for sponsoring....But because of the numerous facts enumerated in this article.....
Of course you can dismiss this argument as Indians promoting themselves...but what the heck... I have to at least try...
more...
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bobzibub
07-10 11:48 AM
My wife suggested the same thing about an hour ago after getting our lawyer's visa bill for my worthless 485 application. (#$#$%you very much US government!)
It is much better to run to something than run from something. But maybe it is time.
It is much better to run to something than run from something. But maybe it is time.
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gc_chahiye
06-28 08:03 PM
I am analyzing for EB-2 (India). The current date for EB-2 India was Apr 1 2004 for month of June.
Retrogression started Oct 1 2005. Before Oct 1 2005, persons with PD < Oct 1 2005 (remember PERM) could have submitted I-485. Some (not all remember namecheck) of these would be ready for adj June 1st 2007. These applicants can be divided into 2 categories: those with PD <= Apr 1 2004 and those with PD > Apr 1 2004.
Applicants in first category will get GC in June and applicants in 2nd category will get GC in Jul. These applicants can exhaust 2007 quota.
USCIS is taking 3 weeks for notification of 485's submiited in June. I would be very surprised if they process a June submission in < 3 months. So chances of June applicant using GC number are low.
USCIS knew # applicants in above 2 categories: this appears trivial. If these applicants exhaust 2007 quota, USCIS knew that quota will get exhausted in Jul. The date can be of their choosing since the work involved must be pretty low.
A similar analysis can be done for any other category. Correct me if my dates are wrong.
but if USCIS knew this (that June+July can finish all the numbers for 2007) then why does the visa bulletin talk about retrogression in September timeframe for India/China? Why not August itself?
Retrogression started Oct 1 2005. Before Oct 1 2005, persons with PD < Oct 1 2005 (remember PERM) could have submitted I-485. Some (not all remember namecheck) of these would be ready for adj June 1st 2007. These applicants can be divided into 2 categories: those with PD <= Apr 1 2004 and those with PD > Apr 1 2004.
Applicants in first category will get GC in June and applicants in 2nd category will get GC in Jul. These applicants can exhaust 2007 quota.
USCIS is taking 3 weeks for notification of 485's submiited in June. I would be very surprised if they process a June submission in < 3 months. So chances of June applicant using GC number are low.
USCIS knew # applicants in above 2 categories: this appears trivial. If these applicants exhaust 2007 quota, USCIS knew that quota will get exhausted in Jul. The date can be of their choosing since the work involved must be pretty low.
A similar analysis can be done for any other category. Correct me if my dates are wrong.
but if USCIS knew this (that June+July can finish all the numbers for 2007) then why does the visa bulletin talk about retrogression in September timeframe for India/China? Why not August itself?
more...
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dan19
08-31 02:17 PM
They keep the passport.
But it didn't take 45 days for me. I got it in 2 weeks.
For the Police certificate at the Indian consulate, do they keep the passport for 45 days i.e. until clearance is received. Or do we get the passport back the same day on which we apply and then the certificate is sent later.
But it didn't take 45 days for me. I got it in 2 weeks.
For the Police certificate at the Indian consulate, do they keep the passport for 45 days i.e. until clearance is received. Or do we get the passport back the same day on which we apply and then the certificate is sent later.
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unseenguy
01-09 02:44 PM
Hello Gurus,
My priority date is Aug 11 , 2006(EB2) and my 6 year H1B ends Sept 2011. Is there any chance the priority dates will move to Aug 2006 levels in FY2010? Or in FY2011? I am really worried because these days people are getting rejections for H1 renewals. When my time comes for renewal I want to have the EAD as a backup in case H1 renewal gets rejected.
Please let me know your thoughts on movement to Aug 2006 before Sept 2011.
Thanks.
Why are you so worried? Dont be scared, make enough money and dont make silly financial decision. You can take your kitty back if push comes to shove. Economies in India and China are booming and you wont die hungry. I guarantee you that.
My priority date is Aug 11 , 2006(EB2) and my 6 year H1B ends Sept 2011. Is there any chance the priority dates will move to Aug 2006 levels in FY2010? Or in FY2011? I am really worried because these days people are getting rejections for H1 renewals. When my time comes for renewal I want to have the EAD as a backup in case H1 renewal gets rejected.
Please let me know your thoughts on movement to Aug 2006 before Sept 2011.
Thanks.
Why are you so worried? Dont be scared, make enough money and dont make silly financial decision. You can take your kitty back if push comes to shove. Economies in India and China are booming and you wont die hungry. I guarantee you that.
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Jerrome
09-15 12:13 PM
This is the monthwise total for Only PERM for India for year 2005 and 2006.
Month EB (INDIA) # Approved
Jan,05 0
Feb,05 0
Mar,05 1
Apr,05 24
May,05 133
June,05 535
July,05 794
Aug,05 1313
Sep,05 1316
Oct,05 1212
Nov,05 1541
Dec,05 1771
Jan,06 1788
Feb,06 1729
Mar,06 2224
Apr,06 1635
May,06 1876
June,06 1902
July,06 1574
Aug,06 1317
Sep,06 963
PERM 2005 (All EB2+EB3) for India is 8640
PERM upto Sep 2006 (2+3) for india is 15008
So the movement depends on the spillover to EB2 india. I assume if it is in the range of 15 to 20K then it will move upto mid of 2006 by end of 2010 for sure.
If the spill over is in the range > 20K to EB2 india then it will go to September 2006.
Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html
In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.
The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.
Month EB (INDIA) # Approved
Jan,05 0
Feb,05 0
Mar,05 1
Apr,05 24
May,05 133
June,05 535
July,05 794
Aug,05 1313
Sep,05 1316
Oct,05 1212
Nov,05 1541
Dec,05 1771
Jan,06 1788
Feb,06 1729
Mar,06 2224
Apr,06 1635
May,06 1876
June,06 1902
July,06 1574
Aug,06 1317
Sep,06 963
PERM 2005 (All EB2+EB3) for India is 8640
PERM upto Sep 2006 (2+3) for india is 15008
So the movement depends on the spillover to EB2 india. I assume if it is in the range of 15 to 20K then it will move upto mid of 2006 by end of 2010 for sure.
If the spill over is in the range > 20K to EB2 india then it will go to September 2006.
Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html
In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.
The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.
mariusp
03-26 10:52 AM
I second that. I filed using labor subst and let me tell you, not all of us buy/cheat to skip the line. I filed using another employee's labor who's working for the same company. My PD is in 2006 which doesn't help much and I've been working for this company way before 2006 anyway. So don't jump to conclusions because there still are people out there who use LC subst. for what it was intended for. And can anyone honestly say that they would refuse LC substitution because it is "evil"? I think that with the current situation we should take advantage of any break we can get.
Very well said Subst_labor. People like Janak are simply jealous that you had the offer. People like him always will think that you are cheating the system or something like that just because a company offered you a labor substitution. I think that one should not judge such cases, and I am actually happy for all of those who are fortunate enough to receive their green cards sooner because of third factors. Good luck with your Labor subst. I hope the company is OK.
G
Very well said Subst_labor. People like Janak are simply jealous that you had the offer. People like him always will think that you are cheating the system or something like that just because a company offered you a labor substitution. I think that one should not judge such cases, and I am actually happy for all of those who are fortunate enough to receive their green cards sooner because of third factors. Good luck with your Labor subst. I hope the company is OK.
G
sk2006
04-01 10:53 PM
So if stop discussing this thread, will they join us?
Are you 'high skilled'?
Your logic suggests otherwise!
Are you 'high skilled'?
Your logic suggests otherwise!
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